According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable energy capacity is on track to more than double by 2030, led by solar, wind, and growing investment in grids and storage.
Solar, wind, and storage drive the expansion toward 2030
According to the Renewables 2025 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is expected to more than double from today’s levels. Over 4,600 gigawatts (GW) will be added by the end of the decade, equivalent to the combined capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan. The analysis shows that renewable growth remains strong despite supply chain constraints, rising costs, and grid integration challenges. Solar photovoltaic energy will account for nearly 80% of the expansion, followed by wind, hydro, bioenergy, and geothermal power.
Solar power and new policies in emerging markets
Solar photovoltaics remain the most competitive and accessible renewable technology. Lower costs and shorter permitting timelines continue to drive global renewable growth. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Indonesia are accelerating solar installations through public auctions and incentive programs. India stands out as the world’s second-largest growth market after China, on track to exceed its 2030 targets. The solar boom is not limited to utility-scale plants: rooftop PV is rapidly expanding, supported by power purchase agreements (PPAs) and merchant installations, which will account for around 30% of total global expansion.
Offshore wind and supply chain bottlenecks
Unlike solar, offshore wind faces a slower outlook. The IEA expects 25% less growth than in 2024, hindered by supply chain bottlenecks and shifting regulations in key markets. Still, both onshore and offshore wind remain strategic for balancing power systems and diversifying generation. As costs ease and investment recovers, the sector is expected to rebound in China, Europe, and India, where suspended projects are being revived. Hydropower and bioenergy will continue to provide grid stability and flexibility, while geothermal energy will reach record installation levels in the United States, Japan, and Indonesia.
Grid integration and energy storage: the next frontier
As renewable energy capacity expands, pressure on transmission infrastructure is rising. The IEA identifies grid integration as one of the most urgent challenges of the decade. High shares of solar and wind are already leading to negative price events and curtailments, highlighting a lack of flexibility. This is driving renewed interest in pumped hydropower, expected to grow nearly 80% faster than in the previous five years. Many countries have launched dedicated capacity and storage auctions, essential tools to ensure grid stability and affordable costs. However, the agency warns that investments in grids and storage must accelerate to maintain global system reliability.
Policies in China and the United States slow renewable energy growth to 2030
The report notes downward revisions for China and the United States, which together account for half of global renewable capacity. In the U.S., the gradual phaseout of federal tax incentives and regulatory shifts have halved growth projections compared to last year. In China, the shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions has reduced project profitability, curbing new investment. Despite this, China’s production dominance remains overwhelming: more than 90% of the global solar supply chain and rare earth materials for wind turbines will continue to depend on the country at least until 2030, keeping geopolitical risks high.
Europe, India, and emerging economies lead the rebound
The slower growth in China and the U.S. is partially offset by stronger momentum in India, Europe, and several developing economies that have raised their climate targets. The European Union, through Directive (EU) 2018/2001 (RED II) and the new Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 on electricity market reform, is promoting larger auctions, faster permitting, and the growth of local energy communities. In Africa and the Middle East, the increasing economic competitiveness of renewables is enabling faster transitions. The IEA also highlights the key role of corporations: private-sector decarbonization goals remain robust, with many developers reaffirming or expanding their 2030 plans.
Renewables in transport and heating: limited progress
The Renewables 2025 report shows only moderate growth for renewable use in transport and heating. In transport, the share of renewables is projected to rise from 4% to 6% by 2030, driven by electric vehicles in Europe and China and by biofuels in Brazil, Indonesia, and India. In heating, renewable sources will increase from 14% to 18%, supported by heat pumps and solar thermal systems. Although progress lags behind the power sector, these technologies remain essential to reducing fossil fuel dependence in residential and industrial applications.
A decade of investment and energy security
“Global renewable growth in the coming years will be dominated by solar, with significant contributions from wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal,” said Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. “As their role in electricity systems expands, governments must focus on supply chain security and grid integration.” Overall, renewable energy remains one of the few certainties of this decade, but the challenge ahead is turning potential capacity into connected, reliable power that can meet global demand without undermining economic stability.
