A European Commission study reveals that fires across the Amazon in 2024 released 791 million tons of CO2, matching Germany’s annual emissions and marking the worst fire season in over two decades.
Unprecedented Amazon fires drive record CO2 emissions
In 2024, the Amazon wildfires generated carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to those produced by Germany in a year, according to a new study from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). The report describes an unparalleled fire season, with more than 791 million tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere, seven times the average of the previous two years. Over 3.3 million hectares burned, an area larger than Belgium and equal to 0.7% of the remaining intact rainforest.
Published in Biogeosciences, the study highlights how a combination of extreme drought, forest fragmentation, and unsustainable land management triggered a domino effect. The result is a sharp decline in the Amazon’s capacity to act as a carbon sink, confirming a trend that threatens the global climate balance.
Forest degradation nears the point of no return
Researchers warn that the frequency and scale of the fires risk pushing the Amazon toward an ecological tipping point. The loss of biomass and biodiversity weakens the forest’s ability to regenerate and absorb carbon, while CO2 emissions increase exponentially.
The study calls for coordinated action to address the structural causes of the fires, including restricting the use of fire in agriculture, tightening legal enforcement, empowering local and Indigenous communities, and boosting international climate finance mechanisms that consider not only deforestation but also forest degradation.
The JRC research contributes to EU–Latin America cooperation through the Amazonia+ program, aimed at strengthening the capacity of Amazonian countries to cut emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and protect biodiversity.
European tools for monitoring fires and CO2 emissions
To assess the scale of the phenomenon, scientists relied on two systems developed by the JRC: the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) and the Tropical Moist Forest monitoring system (TMF).
The first integrates real-time satellite data on wildfires and weather conditions, while the second precisely identifies forest areas affected by fire, excluding those already deforested. Together, they allow accurate estimates of CO2 emissions and help track forest degradation globally.
To refine the data, the team applied a Monte Carlo model, a statistical simulation that processes thousands of samples to quantify uncertainty related to variables such as biomass density, combustion rates, and burned forest cover. This approach, also used in other Copernicus Biogeosciences studies, provides a more robust and comparable picture aligned with global monitoring systems.
A devastating toll: Brazil and Bolivia hardest hit
The JRC reports that most of the affected forest areas were in Brazil (50%) and Bolivia (42%), followed by Venezuela (4.9%) and Peru (1.5%). In Brazil, 2024 marked a historic record for emissions linked to forest degradation, while in Bolivia more than 9% of the remaining intact forest burned, destroying a vital carbon sink and biodiversity reserve.
Experts warn that the impact extends beyond tree loss. Fires are eroding the forest’s ecological structure, diminishing its regenerative capacity. This “invisible degradation” means the forest may appear intact from above but has already lost much of its ecological function and ability to absorb CO2.
EU engagement in Latin America
The European Union has long cooperated with Latin American nations through partnership agreements and technical programs to fight deforestation and strengthen climate resilience. Under the Amazonia+ program, led by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for International Partnerships, the goal is to reinforce local capacity to reduce CO2 emissions, curb habitat loss, and promote sustainable management of tropical forests.
Initiatives include technology transfer for environmental monitoring, training national authorities, and financing fire prevention policies based on European best practices. In parallel, the Commission supports R&D through the EU Forest Observatory and the Joint Research Centre, improving data transparency and scientific collaboration worldwide.
Rising CO2 emissions pose a growing climate threat
The JRC findings show that the Amazon’s role in the global carbon balance is rapidly weakening. Rising CO2 emissions from fires and degradation are eroding the rainforest’s ability to serve as a natural ally against global warming.
The report urges the international community to act collectively, strengthening early warning systems and prevention measures. Only decisive action can avert the looming Amazon tipping point, when the rainforest could shift from carbon sink to net greenhouse gas emitter.
In this context, tools such as the Global Wildfire Information System, the Tropical Moist Forest monitoring system, and other JRC platforms remain essential for providing reliable data and supporting science-based decisions. The 2024 analysis, the most comprehensive to date, serves as a stark warning: without a major course correction, forest degradation could undermine global efforts toward climate neutrality.
