The carbon emissions quota to limit global warming to 1.5°C could run out in just over 3 years if current trends continue, experts warn
Climate policies and the strength of global climate action are not enough to counter the accelerating effects of global warming.
As of January 2025, the remaining carbon emissions quota to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is estimated at 130 billion metric tons. At current carbon dioxide emission levels, that limit could be exceeded in just over three years. The findings come from a new climate study published in the journal Earth System Science Data. The remaining quota to stay below 1.6 or 1.7 degrees could also be surpassed within nine years.
Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and lead author of the research, explained, “Climate change indicators show that both the level and the pace of warming are unprecedented. Ongoing records of greenhouse gas emissions mean more of us are experiencing the dangerous effects of a changing climate. Temperatures have risen year after year since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 report. These increases highlight that current climate policies and the force of global action are not enough to address the growing impacts of warming.”
The impact of human carbon emissions
The estimated rise in average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.52 degrees, with 1.36 degrees attributed to human activity. Exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold in a single year does not violate the Paris Agreement, which assesses long-term average trends. However, it does signal that current carbon emissions trends are incompatible with meeting those climate targets.
Looking at long-term trends, the estimated increase between 2015 and 2024 shows a global average temperature 1.24 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Of this rise, 1.22 degrees is attributed to human actions. In essence, nearly all the global warming observed over the past decade is due to human activity.
Over the last ten years, human activity has released the equivalent of nearly 53 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. In 2024, emissions from the aviation sector – which saw the largest drop during the pandemic – returned to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, between 2019 and 2024, global sea level rose by nearly 26 millimeters, more than doubling the long-term rate of 1.8 millimeters per year recorded since the early 20th century.
Read the full study here.
