U.S. emissions increased in 2025, breaking a two year downward trend. New data show greenhouse gas output rose faster than economic growth, raising concerns for climate targets.
U.S. emissions increase by 2.4% in 2025
In 2025, U.S. emissions rose, marking a clear reversal from the previous two years. Based on preliminary data on the country’s economic and energy activity, a new analysis by the independent organization Rhodium Group estimates that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% in 2025.
The study also finds that emissions grew faster than the overall economy. U.S. GDP is expected to have expanded by around 2% in 2025, yet carbon pollution rose at a quicker pace. Historically, U.S. carbon emissions have closely tracked economic growth. In the past two years, however, expanded clean energy deployment helped reduce emissions despite rising GDP.
According to the authors, the effects of climate and energy policies introduced under President Trump are not yet visible in the 2025 data. However, they warn that these measures could push U.S. emissions higher in the coming years. Even so, emissions in 2025 were still 6% below 2019 levels and 18% lower than in 2005.
From a scientific standpoint, pollution from burning coal, oil, and natural gas remains the primary driver of global warming. Data from the European Earth observation program Copernicus show that 2025 was marked by exceptional global heat. The 1.5 °C warming threshold could now be exceeded by 2030, more than a decade earlier than projected when the Paris Agreement was signed.
What drove U.S. emissions higher in 2025
The increase in U.S. emissions was driven mainly by the buildings and power sectors. Colder winter temperatures recorded in 2025 led to higher heating demand, pushing direct emissions from fossil fuel use in buildings up by 6.8%.
At the same time, rising electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency operations increased power generation, including output from coal fired plants. Higher natural gas prices contributed to a 13% rise in coal based electricity generation, after coal use had fallen by nearly two thirds from its 2007 peak. As a result, emissions from the power sector increased by 3.8%. Changes in other sectors were more limited.
Trump policies not yet reflected in greenhouse gas emissions
Ben King, coauthor of the study and a director at the Rhodium Group, told The Guardian that changes to U.S. environmental policy under the Trump administration have not been in place long enough to affect 2025 emissions.
The analysis shows that solar power generation rose by 34% in 2025, surpassing hydropower. Zero carbon energy sources now account for 42% of U.S. electricity generation. The study notes that the real test will come once federal subsidies for solar and wind expire, when policy impacts are likely to become more visible.
Economic growth and the rise in U.S. emissions
Economic growth remains a key driver of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2025, U.S. real GDP, adjusted for inflation, grew at an estimated rate of 1.9%. This figure is based on forecasts released before third quarter data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which came in above expectations. Most analysts now agree on growth close to 2%.
According to the study, GDP growth was nearly 30% lower than in each of the previous three years. Still, the U.S. economy expanded despite market volatility and uncertainty linked to shifts in federal trade, tariff, fiscal, and energy policies, as well as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
Consumer spending, the main engine of the U.S. economy, proved resilient despite these shocks and inflation near 3%. Continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure also emerged as a significant source of growth.
Overall, the research concludes that U.S. emissions increased faster than economic output in 2025, ending a three year trend in which economic growth had outpaced emissions growth.
Go to the Rhodium Group study.
