NOAA forecasts 13 to 19 storms for the 2025 hurricane season, with up to 5 major hurricanes and growing concern over federal weather monitoring cuts
Up to 5 of these storms could become major hurricanes, with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2025 hurricane season, predicting above-average activity in the Atlantic basin. For this year, the agency expects between 13 and 19 named storms. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from early June through the end of November. NOAA estimates a 60% chance of an above-average season, a 30% chance of a near-normal one, and just a 10% chance of a below-average year.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
A typical season sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The 2025 forecast is notably more intense, with NOAA scientists projecting between 6 and 10 hurricanes, each with wind speeds of at least 74 mph. Of these, 3 to 5 are expected to intensify into major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 111 mph.
Over the past decade, NOAA’s May forecasts have been off the mark only twice, in 2017 and 2020, both years delivering more hurricanes than anticipated. The 2025 season is shaping up to be particularly challenging. A combination of above-average ocean temperatures, weaker-than-usual wind shear, and increased monsoon activity from West Africa could significantly raise the likelihood of tropical storm formation.
“The 2025 outlook is a call to action,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We need to prepare and take the right steps before a hurricane strikes.”
Political fallout and staffing cuts hinder NOAA response
The 2025 forecast was presented during a conference in New Orleans, marking 20 years since Hurricane Katrina. But the announcement comes amid deep internal struggles at NOAA. The agency is facing budget cuts and layoffs driven by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an initiative championed by the Trump administration.
Hundreds of NOAA employees have already been laid off, raising concerns among residents in high-risk coastal areas about their ability to rely on federal forecasting tools this season. Some meteorologists have had to reduce the number of atmospheric weather balloons launched, which are essential for collecting upper-air data.
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Here is NOAA’s full 2025 hurricane season forecast.
