The 7 billion tons of additional emissions could cause over \$1.6 trillion in global climate damages.
Big Beatiful Bill undermines U.S. climate goals and fuels global damage
The tax law passed under Trump, known as the Big Beatiful Bill, is expected to increase U.S. emissions by 7 billion metric tons by 2030, compared to previous commitments made by Washington under the Paris Climate Agreement. Congress approved the legislation under the tight deadline set by the President. With Trump’s signature, the bill is now law.
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions outlook through 2030
The new tax law effectively marks the end of the climate targets set by President Joe Biden. With these new measures, those goals appear out of reach. An analysis by Carbon Brief, based on Princeton University’s REPEAT project, offers a detailed assessment of the impact of dismantling Biden’s climate policies.
According to the estimates, U.S. emissions will fall by just 3% by 2030 compared to current levels, remaining essentially flat. The previous target, now defunct, aimed for a 29% to 46% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. This means the U.S. will fall 2 billion metric tons short of its 2030 goal.
The U.S. pledge under the Paris Agreement aimed to cut emissions by 50–52% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Under Trump’s direction, emissions will cumulatively rise by 7 billion metric tons over the next five years.
Using the Environmental Protection Agency’s most recent estimates of the 2030 social cost of carbon, released under the Biden administration, these added emissions could cause more than $1.6 trillion in global climate damages.
Trump’s environmental policies would reduce emissions only 20% below 2005 levels by 2030, instead of the 50–52% needed. This translates into a 2 billion ton gap. From 2024 to 2030, emissions would drop just 3%, remaining largely unchanged.
How Big Beatiful Bill affects the U.S. energy transition
The law virtually eliminates tax credits for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the sustainable industry initiatives central to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As a result, solar and wind expansion in the U.S. will likely slow down, as will EV sales and energy efficiency improvements.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act removes renewable energy tax credits starting in 2026 for projects not yet underway. The previous version allowed 30% tax credits through 2032. However, the final text is slightly more favorable for wind development compared to earlier drafts and Republican expectations in the House.
One key consequence of this sweeping tax reform is expected to be rising domestic and industrial energy costs. Part of the increase stems from fewer electric vehicles on the road, driving up gasoline and diesel consumption and prices. Slower construction of wind and solar plants, amid rising energy demand, will likely also push electricity prices higher.
Without tax incentives, residential electricity prices are projected to rise 7% for the average U.S. consumer, or about $110 annually by 2026, according to a study commissioned by the Clean Energy Buyers Association.
Princeton University’s analysis
The rollback of many Biden-era climate policies will significantly affect the U.S. energy transition. The Princeton REPEAT project highlighted the impact of Big Beatiful Bill with several key findings:
- Household energy costs will likely increase by $165 in 2030 and over $280 by 2035
- Capital investment across 2025–2035 will drop by $500 billion
- Solar capacity will shrink by 29 gigawatts by 2030 and nearly 140 GW by 2035
- Wind capacity will decrease by 43 GW by 2030 and 160 GW by 2035
- Clean electricity generation by 2035 will fall by more than 820 terawatt-hours, exceeding the entire current contribution of nuclear or coal to U.S. power supply
See the full Carbon Brief analysis [here]
