China may prove more resilient to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict thanks to large crude reserves, yet the geopolitical shock could further push Beijing toward renewable energy and storage technologies.
Iran conflict and China’s energy security strategy
China may be less vulnerable to the immediate consequences of the Iran conflict than many observers expect. As the world’s largest crude oil importer, the country’s refineries appear to hold sufficient reserves to withstand short-term supply disruptions. Beijing has condemned the attack on Iran as a serious violation of international law, but it is also likely to adapt to potential political changes in Tehran while attempting to maintain strategic ties with the Islamic Republic.
The broader question is whether the shock to global oil and gas markets will accelerate China’s shift toward a more resilient and diversified energy system.
Strategic oil reserves cushion short-term supply risks
For now, China may be able to absorb the initial impact thanks to significant stockpiles built through recent purchases of discounted Iranian and Russian crude. In 2025, Beijing accumulated large strategic reserves to protect itself against future supply shocks and price volatility. However, dependence on maritime routes through the Middle East remains the country’s main vulnerability.
Independent Chinese refineries are the primary market for Iranian oil, which is typically sold at steep discounts due to U.S. sanctions that limit other buyers. Currently, record volumes are stored at sea or heading toward Chinese ports. According to a February 27 estimate by Kpler, almost 191 million barrels of Iranian crude were in global maritime transit, with roughly 39 million barrels located in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, likely bound for Asia.
China’s crude imports reached a record in 2025
Analysis from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University shows that China has used geopolitical tensions and lower prices to reinforce its strategic reserves. In 2025, Chinese crude imports reached a record 11.6 million barrels per day, up from 11.1 million barrels per day in 2024.
About 83% of that increase, roughly 430,000 barrels per day, went into storage rather than immediate consumption. The data also suggest unusual trade patterns. China imports around 1.3 million barrels per day of oil labeled as Malaysian, exceeding Malaysia’s own production. Imports from Indonesia also increased significantly during 2025, raising the possibility that part of this supply consists of Iranian crude relabeled to circumvent international sanctions.
Low prices, global oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty encouraged Beijing to adopt what analysts describe as a strategy of calculated opportunism.
Potential refinery cuts amid maritime disruptions
Despite these buffers, geopolitical instability in the Middle East remains a weak point for China’s energy system. Chinese refineries may implement precautionary cuts in output due to disruptions in maritime transfers.
According to Energy Aspects analyst Sun Jianan, reductions in refining activity could reach as much as 20% if shipping disruptions intensify.
Energy transition gains strategic importance
In this context, the Iran conflict may further strengthen Beijing’s commitment to accelerating the energy transition. Recent developments once again highlight the structural risks associated with dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Shen Xinyi, a researcher at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, argues that the situation in the Middle East could reinforce China’s effort to link energy security with the transition to clean energy. Although China’s energy system has so far remained relatively resilient to the escalation, renewable power and energy storage are increasingly viewed as strategic infrastructure.
As reported by the South China Morning Post, “renewables and energy storage are not only climate solutions but also critical infrastructure for improving energy autonomy and system stability.”
China’s policy proposals for the next five-year plan also emphasize replacing fossil fuels with wind, solar and hydropower. Beyond strengthening Beijing’s domestic energy security agenda, the conflict in Iran could also stimulate international demand for Chinese solar and energy storage technologies, as other countries seek to expand the share of renewables in their energy mix.
