The proposed 30% tariffs from the US risk undermining Europe’s agricultural sector and destabilizing global trade. As Washington pursues an aggressive strategy to open EU markets and assert economic dominance, the lack of a coordinated European response could leave producers exposed and fracture long-standing alliances.
The impact on European agri-food exports
The 30% tariffs the US president wants to impose on Europe are expected to take effect on August 1. For those who retaliate, the rate could double.
This move could unleash global market chaos far beyond the US-EU relationship, with devastating consequences for the European agri-food sector.
Until a few days ago, discussions revolved around a possible 10% rate, similar to what the UK secured, and the EU was considering negotiating on that basis. Not the best-case scenario, but perhaps one that would have allowed the damage to be shared across the Atlantic.
The dangerous instability of economic bullying
Since stepping onto this seesaw, President Trump has gone up and down, constantly contradicting what he said the day before.
Outrage and concern are running high across the agricultural sector, with many describing the situation as “economic bullying.” This aggressive stance had briefly calmed in April after a sharp drop in financial markets and the weakening of the dollar and US Treasury bonds.
Bullies hit the weak and take the blows from the strong.. That is exactly what is happening, as Trump triggers sharply different reactions across Europe. Some call for ongoing negotiations to contain the damage, others look to alternative markets, some push for retaliation, while many are disoriented by the U-turn of a long-time ally.
A clear strategy behind the 30% tariffs
What is still missing, unfortunately, is a united and forceful European response. Let us not forget, the EU is a major economic power with 450 million people.
The US president’s intentions have been clear since his previous term: to divide the EU, which he sees more as a competitor than an ally. Another goal is to open the European market to US imports and reduce the national debt by boosting federal revenues through higher tariff income.
Recognizing this strategy could help put aside individual state interests, acting alone would be a losing game, and instead push for a serious, coordinated negotiation effort.
This is even more crucial given today’s geopolitical challenges, which demand unity from the Western world.
Confagricoltura: 30% tariffs are unacceptable
“Thirty percent tariffs go far beyond the darkest expectations and are absolutely unacceptable. For European and Italian agriculture, they would be a sentence that hits not only the primary sector but the economy of entire countries,” said Massimiliano Giansanti, president of Confagricoltura and of COPA, which represents 22 million European farmers.
For this reason, Giansanti believes there is room to open a discussion on non-tariff barriers.
The EU has very high agri-food standards and does not intend to lower them. These quality standards are exactly what make European products so valued worldwide.
What sense would it make to import agricultural products grown with pesticides banned in the EU, or meat treated with hormones outlawed in Europe? And should the EU open its market to counterfeit goods, of which the US is the leading producer, that threaten local food traditions?
Is it realistic, then, to consider replacing the US with alternative markets?
“As Europe, we must remain united at the negotiating table and find a solution that does not sink our economy or jeopardize our production systems on the issue of non-tariff barriers.”
Coldiretti: a boost to the booming Italian Sounding market
Coldiretti estimates that the 30% tariffs announced by Donald Trump could cause €2.3 billion in direct damages.
“The impact of higher prices for American consumers would inevitably have repercussions on Italian companies,” Coldiretti stated, noting that in recent weeks importers have already started asking for price cuts.
Declining consumption will inevitably lead to unsold products for Italian producers, forcing them to seek new markets.
And the potential disappearance of many Italian products from US store shelves would benefit the already booming Italian Sounding market, which is valued at €40 billion.
According to Coldiretti projections, if the 30% tariff is implemented, the final duties would reach:
- 45% for cheese
- 35% for wine
- 42% for processed tomatoes
- 36% for stuffed pasta
- 42% for jams and preserves
UIV: 30% tariffs nearly an embargo on Italian wine
“It only took a letter to write the darkest chapter in the relationship between two historic Western allies. A 30% tariff on wine, if confirmed, would amount to an embargo on 80% of Italian wine exports,” said Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of Unione Italiana Vini.
“At this point, the fate of our industry and hundreds of thousands of jobs hinges on the overtime period ahead, which will be crucial, because there is no way to redirect such volumes of wine elsewhere in the short term.
At the same time, a strong response from the EU will be essential.”
Italy is the most exposed country when it comes to wine exports. The Italian wine trade with the US is worth around €2 billion, or 24% of total Italian wine exports.
EU wine exports to the US total nearly €5 billion per year, while US wine exports to Europe are worth only €318 million.
Overall, EU alcoholic beverage sales in the US, including wine, generate €8 billion in revenue, compared to just €1.3 billion in US imports.
According to Federvini, every dollar spent on European quality products generates $4.50 in the US economy. Will this be enough to make Trump reconsider the impact of the 30% tariffs on the domestic market?
Bufala Campana PDO: severe damage ahead
According to Domenico Raimondo, president of the Consortium for the Protection of Mozzarella di Bufala Campana PDO, the 30% tariffs will lead to a significant drop in sales, with negative consequences for employment as well.
Raimondo highlights a concern that applies to the entire agri-food sector: with 30% tariffs, many companies will lose half their revenue.
Today, a one-kilo mozzarella sells for $60 to $80 (or $200–250 at a restaurant). It is hard to imagine consumers continuing to buy it if prices rise another 30%.
He called for a unified European stance, warning that Europe must speak with one voice to have negotiating power: “Trump is trying to divide us. We must remain cohesive. He speaks with one word, we speak with 27 different voices.”
Lunelli: the EU must respond firmly
Matteo Lunelli, president of Bisol1542 and CEO of the Lunelli Group, believes dialogue is impossible with those who no longer behave as equal partners, but rather as aggressive opponents.
The United States is an important market, but the situation has become erratic and unpredictable. This uncertainty is more damaging than the tariffs themselves, making it impossible to develop a long-term strategy.
After showing willingness to negotiate, Lunelli believes it is now time for firmness. Most importantly, Europe must respond with one voice, if each country acts on its own, the EU will end up weakened and defeated.
The US used to be the Lunelli Group’s top export destination. Now the company is exploring other options.
Lunelli is convinced that the 30% tariffs hurt everyone, both in Europe and the US. Barriers serve no one. Europe should push for a more open and united market, reconnecting with its values and roots.
CIA – Italian Farmers: Europe must negotiate as one
“The 30% tariffs threatened by Trump are unacceptable. Europe must stand united and keep the negotiations open. We must avoid a trade war with the United States, which would be catastrophic for the entire agri-food sector,” said Cristiano Fini, president of CIA – Italian Farmers.
“We need strong diplomacy to find a solution and protect the progress achieved so far.
Agri-food exports to the US have grown 158% in the past ten years. Today, the US is the second-largest market for Italian food and wine, with €7.8 billion recorded in 2024.
Italy can and must lead Europe in the negotiations with Trump, since we have the most at stake. The US accounts for nearly 12% of all Italian agri-food exports, placing us at the top among EU countries.”
Concerns within the United States
The US wine sector has openly criticized Trump’s plan to impose 30% tariffs on European imports.
Ben Aneff, president of the US Wine Trade Alliance, stated that European wine supports thousands of American jobs: distributors, restaurants, and retailers.
The effects of the tariffs are already visible. The mere threat of new duties has already led to thousands of layoffs across the wine industry.
For this reason, the US Wine Trade Alliance, along with other organizations, signed a letter urging Trump to return to the negotiating table and pursue a mutually beneficial agreement.
