Global solar installations reached a new high in 2025, but the pace of expansion is easing. With 664 GW added and total capacity surpassing 3 TW, the sector is moving into a more complex growth cycle shaped by grid constraints, policy shifts and regional concentration.
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Global solar capacity growth slows as the sector enters a new phase
Is the fossil fuel crisis accelerating the energy transition? Yes and no. While renewables continue to expand globally, signs of strain are becoming increasingly visible, to the point that even a leading segment such as photovoltaics appears to be losing momentum.
Although the solar sector set yet another record in 2025 in terms of new installed capacity, the pace of global solar capacity growth has slowed, and 2026 could even mark a temporary reversal. These are the key findings of SolarPower Europe’s Global Solar Market Outlook 2026-2030.
Global Solar Market Outlook 2026-2030
The report provides a detailed view of the global market, combining positive and negative signals. On the upside, the numbers remain striking. 2025 was another record year for solar worldwide, with 664 GW of new installations pushing total installed capacity beyond 3 TW.
The scale of this achievement becomes even more significant when measured over time. From the first commercial solar cell in 1954, it took 68 years, until 2022, to reach 1 TW of installed capacity. It then took just two years to double to 2 TW, and around 18 months to reach 3 TW.
Another record: solar PV now meets 9% of global electricity demand, triple its share just five years ago. “However, a closer look at the numbers reveals that the sector is entering a new phase,” SolarPower Europe writes. “While solar continues to grow, the pace of expansion is slowing. We expect the global market to contract due to a projected 24% decline in China. Growth continues across most other regions, but as China is the dominant solar market, its developments inevitably shape global trends.”
According to the association’s analysts, installations are not expected to recover before 2027, reaching 6.6 TW by 2030 in the medium scenario, about 0.5 percentage points lower than last year’s forecast.
What does this mean? That despite the technology being fully established, the focus can no longer be only on deployment. In many markets, the challenge is no longer how much capacity is installed, but how it is integrated into the grid. “In an increasing number of markets, deployment is constrained by system integration challenges, from grid congestion to curtailment and negative price signals. We urgently need investment in grids, battery storage and other non-fossil flexibility solutions to integrate large volumes of renewables,” the report states.
Global photovoltaic market in 2025
In 2025, the global photovoltaic market remained highly concentrated. Just 10 countries accounted for 82% of all new installed capacity. China further strengthened its dominant position. Of the 664 GW added globally, 382 GW came from China alone, representing 57% of total installations.
The most notable shift is India overtaking the United States, moving into second place among the top installers with 45.7 GW in 2025. Germany rose to fourth place, surpassing Brazil. It is followed by Spain, Saudi Arabia (one of the fastest-growing markets compared with 2024), France, Italy and Japan. Italy ranked ninth with 6.4 GW of new capacity, slightly above its 2024 performance.
The ranking of leading countries is as follows:
- China: 57% of total – 2025: 382 GW | 2024: 329 GW
- India: 7% – 2025: 45.7 GW | 2024: 30.7 GW
- United States: 7% – 2025: 43.2 GW | 2024: 50.0 GW
- Germany: 3% – 2025: 17.4 GW | 2024: 17.4 GW
- Brazil: 2% – 2025: 14.5 GW | 2024: 18.9 GW
- Spain: 2% – 2025: 11.3 GW | 2024: 9.3 GW
- Saudi Arabia: 1% – 2025: 8.4 GW | 2024: 2.8 GW
- France: 1% – 2025: 6.9 GW | 2024: 5.6 GW
- Italy: 1% – 2025: 6.4 GW | 2024: 6.1 GW
- Japan: 1% – 2025: 5.8 GW | 2024: 6.2 GW
- Rest of the world: 18%
Global solar capacity growth outlook for 2026
After two decades of continuous expansion, 2026 is expected to mark the first decline, with an 8% year-on-year contraction to 612 GW of new capacity in the medium scenario. The downturn is largely driven by China, where changes to incentive schemes and new mandatory standards for modules and inverters are expected to reduce installations by 24%.
Grid constraints are also playing a key role. Rising curtailment levels and increasingly frequent negative electricity prices in mature solar markets are slowing development momentum.
“Despite the expected short-term decline, long-term fundamentals remain strong. Annual installations are projected to reach around 864 GW by 2030, while total global capacity is expected to grow to 6.6 TW, with upside potential up to 7.6 TW in the most optimistic scenario”.
