An enormous marine heatwave spreading across the Pacific Ocean is fueling concerns that a powerful El Niño event could emerge in 2026, amplifying global temperatures and placing marine ecosystems under unprecedented stress.
Godzilla El Niño and the expanding Pacific marine heatwave
The likelihood of a strong El Niño developing by July exceeds 80%, raising concerns that 2026 could become one of the hottest years ever recorded. At the same time, an exceptionally large marine heatwave has been forming across the North Pacific since late 2025.
The extreme warming is not limited to one region. Large portions of the Pacific Ocean are experiencing unusually high sea surface temperatures. As a result, scientists are increasingly concerned that these warmer waters could fuel what is beginning to be described as a super El Niño or Godzilla El Niño, a phenomenon that could potentially extend marine heatwaves well beyond 2027. If that scenario materializes, the consequences for fisheries and marine ecosystems could be severe.
An analysis published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an organization focused on informing the public about threats to humanity’s future, explains how a massive ocean heatwave could intensify an exceptionally strong El Niño event.
Marine heatwaves are periods during which ocean waters become abnormally warm for weeks, months, or even years compared with the average conditions of a given region. They typically develop near the ocean surface but can also affect deeper waters. These events are becoming more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.
Could a Blob 3.0 be emerging?
Marine heatwaves occur worldwide, but some of the largest and most persistent events have taken place in the Pacific Ocean. Among the most notable were the so-called Blob 1.0 in the northeastern Pacific between 2013 and 2015 and Blob 2.0 during 2019 and 2020.
Between 2015 and 2016, much of the tropical Pacific experienced exceptionally high sea surface temperatures driven by a powerful El Niño event. The result was widespread coral bleaching and significant coral mortality.
At its peak in 2015, the Blob covered nearly 4 million square kilometers of ocean, stretching from Alaska to California.
Both Blob events disrupted marine ecosystems along North America’s west coast, triggered harmful algal blooms, damaged fisheries, and contributed to one of the most severe seabird die-offs ever documented.
Why scientists are worried about a super El Niño
El Niño events can be viewed as recurring large-scale marine heatwaves that develop in the Pacific every two to seven years. When the three-month average sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific rises more than 0.5°C above normal, conditions are classified as El Niño.
A growing body of research suggests that human-induced climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of these events.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific are already supporting El Niño conditions. The probability of an El Niño event developing has climbed above 80% for the May-June period and above 90% by the end of 2026.
Scientists are now closely monitoring another vast area of warming. A separate marine heatwave extends from Papua New Guinea to the California coastline, where ocean temperatures have exceeded seasonal averages by 2°C to 3°C in recent months.
During the 2013-2015 Blob event, the second year of extreme warming coincided with the development of one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record. That overlap suggests that interactions between large-scale marine heatwaves and El Niño can strengthen and prolong warming across the Pacific.
Why 2026 stands out
What makes the current situation particularly concerning is the scale of the ongoing marine heatwave. According to researchers, the affected area is already larger than that observed during Blob 1.0.
At the same time, El Niño conditions are emerging along the equatorial Pacific. The combination of these overlapping warming patterns is fueling fears that elevated ocean temperatures could persist, or even intensify, across the Pacific well beyond 2027.
Should a Godzilla El Niño develop, the impacts could extend far beyond the ocean, influencing global weather patterns, increasing heat extremes, disrupting fisheries, damaging coral reef ecosystems, and adding further pressure to a climate system already experiencing record-breaking temperatures.
