According to the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, tropical coral reefs have entered a near-irreversible phase of extinction, marking the planet’s first breached climate tipping point. The report, produced by 160 scientists worldwide, warns that humanity is approaching catastrophic thresholds in Earth’s natural systems just weeks before COP30 in Brazil.
The planet’s first climate tipping point has been crossed
Tropical coral reefs, vital for the wellbeing of one billion people and nearly a million species, are now in a phase of near-total collapse. Scientists warn that unless global warming is rapidly limited to 1.2 °C, these ecosystems will not survive the large-scale impacts of climate change.
Across the globe, coral reefs are experiencing unprecedented mortality from increasingly severe mass bleaching events. According to the report’s authors, without stringent climate mitigation, a 1.5 °C increase in temperature would make the disappearance of tropical coral reefs virtually certain, with more than 99% probability.
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, coordinated by the University of Exeter and the Global Systems Institute, offers a comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment of climate tipping points. It identifies several critical thresholds that Earth is approaching: the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest, and Arctic permafrost.
Other climate tipping points at risk
The same report warns that the world is on the verge of crossing additional climate tipping points, including the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the collapse of major ocean currents, and the melting of polar ice sheets.
Regarding ocean circulation, the report urges the acceleration of global mitigation efforts to minimize the overshoot beyond 1.5 °C. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) have distinct tipping thresholds but are deeply interconnected. The crossing of even one could trigger far-reaching effects, such as harsher winters in Northwestern Europe, disruption of the West African monsoon, reduced agricultural productivity in several regions, and significant changes in marine ecosystems.
The Amazon is approaching an ecological tipping point due to the interaction between climate change and land use. Within a global warming range of 1.5–2 °C, vast forest areas risk transforming into degraded ecosystems, weakening global climate regulation, altering regional weather, and accelerating biodiversity loss. These risks remain largely unaddressed in current climate policies.
Positive tipping points and signs of progress
In addition to warning of the first climate tipping point being crossed, the report introduces the concept of positive tipping points, systemic changes that accelerate decarbonization. Key sectors include energy, mobility, finance, and food.
Tim Lenton, environmental scientist at the University of Exeter and lead author of the report, highlights encouraging signs regarding the global phase-out of fossil fuels, among the main drivers of climate change. For the first time, in the first half of 2025, renewable electricity generation surpassed coal power, according to data from the non-profit think tank Ember.
