Global wind market outlook to 2030
The wind industry shows no sign of slowing down. Following another record year in 2024, when 117 GW of new capacity was installed, the short- and medium-term outlook projects further acceleration. Between now and 2030, global capacity is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8 percent. That means nearly 982 GW of additional wind power could be connected worldwide by the end of the decade.
These figures come from the Global Wind Energy Council’s (GWEC) Market Intelligence baseline scenario. This outlook reflects current policies and sector challenges, but with stronger global commitments the total could be even higher.
Wind’s evolution will be one of the main themes at KEY – The Energy Transition Expo 2026, the leading event in Europe, Africa, and the Mediterranean region for energy transition technologies. From March 4 to 6, 2026, the exhibition will showcase innovation across the sector, with companies connecting to stakeholders, policymakers, associations, researchers, and institutions. Hundreds of panels, conferences, and workshops will offer a close look at the present and future of wind energy, supported by a wide range of international participants.
Ahead of the event, organized by IEG, here is a detailed look at the latest global wind market forecasts.
Wind sector forecast 2025–2030
GWEC analysts remain optimistic about 2025 despite a destabilized global context shaped by war, inflation, and new energy policies.
New wind installations are expected to surpass the 2024 record, reaching 138 GW by the end of the year. From there, the industry is projected to scale up, adding 982 GW of new capacity by 2030. That equates to 164 GW of new wind farms annually.
Onshore wind will drive most of the expansion, with 827 GW of new capacity between 2025 and 2030 (CAGR of 6.6 percent). China and Europe will remain the backbone of this growth.
For offshore wind, analysts forecast 156 GW of new global capacity in the same period (CAGR of 27 percent), with 51 percent from China and 33 percent from Europe.
What about Italy? According to WindEurope, the country could see wind growth of 144.59 percent between 2025 and 2030 under current policies, with 7.8 GW of new onshore capacity and 0.04 GW offshore.
The pillars of wind energy growth
Analysts point to several key pillars behind the sector’s trajectory. The largest driver is China, with government commitments to cover more than 80 percent of total energy consumption by 2060 from non-fossil sources.
Europe is also accelerating renewable energy deployment, reinforcing energy security. The Clean Industrial Deal, approved earlier this year, will further boost clean energy by advancing industrial decarbonization.
The U.S. market, however, faces uncertainty. In January, a Trump executive order suspended approvals, permits, and loans for wind projects. The proposed phaseout of the production tax credit will also weigh on future project pipelines. Even so, wind continues to provide critical support for American manufacturing and artificial intelligence development.
Despite financial pressures, governments and developers have largely kept their commitments to offshore wind, with floating technologies gaining traction. Emerging markets are also expected to gain momentum, with record annual installations projected from 2025 through 2030.
Challenges ahead for the wind sector
The global wind boom is not without risks.
In 2023–2024, several offshore projects in the U.S. and Europe faced financial stress due to uncovered costs and inadequate support schemes, leading to delays and failed auctions from overly aggressive bids. In emerging markets, currency volatility and inflation have raised risk premiums, making financing harder to secure.
Political disruptions to supply chains are also becoming more significant. Protectionist policies are fragmenting global trade, disconnecting major regional economies even as intraregional integration grows. U.S. tariff hikes have accelerated this trend. Beyond politics, structural vulnerabilities, such as reliance on specific regions or companies for key processes, create risky dependencies.
The rapid expansion of variable renewables is also exposing structural flaws in electricity markets, particularly the rise of negative power prices. These extended periods of zero or negative pricing undermine investor confidence and raise financing costs, forcing governments and lenders to reassess risk. Analysts point to inefficient market design, auction frameworks, and marginal-cost-based bidding systems as the root causes.
Article in collaboration with KEY – The Energy Transition Expo.