The new Chinese five-year plan and its global impact
China is preparing to unveil its 15th five-year plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030, with publication expected in March 2026. The document will define the country’s future greenhouse gas emissions and, by extension, influence global climate trajectories. Its targets will determine whether the People’s Republic can meet its 2030 climate commitments and will also set the pace for clean energy growth, which in recent years has repeatedly exceeded expectations. Carbon Brief has analyzed what to expect from the new Chinese five-year plan on emissions and energy.
A high-level look at the new Chinese five-year plan
As highlighted by research from CREA, despite coal consumption and related emissions remaining broadly stable this year, China is unlikely to meet several key energy and emissions targets set under the current 14th five-year plan for 2021–2025. In particular, the country is expected to miss its goals on reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP and on curbing the growth of coal use and the construction of new coal-fired power plants.
At the same time, the government’s determination to meet its 2030 climate targets appears uncertain. The commitment to gradually reduce coal consumption between 2026 and 2030 is absent from both the updated nationally determined contribution and the Central Committee’s recommendations for the next five-year plan. For these reasons, Carbon Brief’s analysis points to a risk of rising emissions after two years of relative stability.
A new target for carbon intensity reduction
Reducing carbon intensity, defined as energy-related carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP, has been part of China’s climate commitments since the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, when Beijing announced its 2020 target. Each of the last three Chinese five-year plans has included a carbon intensity goal, making it highly likely that the next plan will do the same.
In 2021, President Xi Jinping pledged to cut China’s carbon intensity by 65 percent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, a commitment later formalized in the country’s 2030 nationally determined contribution.
However, multiple analyses show that China’s CO2 emissions rose faster in the early 2020s than in the years before the Covid-19 pandemic, driven by higher energy demand during and after the “zero-Covid” period.
A State Council plan on carbon emissions control published in 2024 defines carbon intensity as a “binding indicator” for the next five-year period, suggesting that a specific target will be included in the high-level plan released in March 2026.
The current five-year plan sets targets of an 18 percent reduction in CO2 intensity and a 13.5 percent cut in energy intensity between 2021 and 2025. According to Carbon Brief, China is on track to achieve only a 12 percent reduction in carbon intensity, based on annual data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics through 2024 and a modest rise in energy-sector CO2 emissions expected in 2025.
Trends in CO2 emissions
Even so, total CO2 emissions could still decline this year due to a contraction in emissions from the cement sector. A 12 percent reduction, however, would fall short of what is needed to stay on track for the 2030 target. To close the gap and meet its 2030 carbon intensity goal, China would need to set a reduction target of at least 23 percent in the next five-year plan, Carbon Brief writes.
Will the new Chinese five-year plan set an absolute cap on coal use?
Permits for new coal power plants in China have continued to fall this year. State news agency Xinhua reports that the government expects coal consumption to peak around 2027, driven by a gradual slowdown in demand for steel and construction materials. Total oil consumption, by contrast, could peak around 2026, while demand for petrochemical feedstocks is expected to maintain moderate growth.
In September 2025, China submitted its updated nationally determined contributions for 2035. These include cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from an unspecified peak level, raising the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to more than 30 percent, and expanding installed wind and solar capacity to more than six times 2020 levels. Referring to an undefined peak rather than a specific past year potentially allows emissions to continue rising in the short term, which is a key concern.
When will emissions peak?
In October, Chinese Communist Party officials said they would promote a peak in coal use during the 2026–2030 period. This marks a significant shift from a speech by Xi Jinping in spring 2021, when he promised a gradual reduction in coal consumption over the same timeframe.
State oil company CNPC forecasts that China’s oil consumption will peak as early as 2025 at around 770 million tonnes. Sinopec, by contrast, expects continued demand for petrochemical feedstocks to push oil consumption growth through 2027, with a peak at 790–800 million tonnes. Reaching a peak would not necessarily imply a rapid decline, but could also mean a prolonged plateau in consumption.
The State Council has also announced that China will begin introducing, “for the first time, absolute emissions limits in certain sectors” starting in 2027 as part of its national carbon market. These absolute caps are expected to apply only to selected sectors. The State Council added that the market will cover all “high-emitting sectors” by 2027, but absolute limits will apply only where emissions have “stabilized.”
Will clean energy targets be expanded?
China aims to reach a 30 percent share of non-fossil energy by 2035, but this target may be too low to ensure the country meets its 2030 carbon intensity goal. Hitting that objective would require non-fossil energy to reach 30 percent of the energy mix by 2030, five years earlier than currently planned. Today, non-fossil sources account for about 20 percent of the total.
Meeting the 2030 commitments would require adding roughly 250–350 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity each year, well above the 200 gigawatts currently planned.
China still has significant room to accelerate clean energy deployment. However, building new nuclear and hydropower plants typically takes five years or more, meaning only projects already under construction are likely to be completed by 2030. This is why wind and solar are expected to be the fastest and most scalable solutions over the next five years under the new Chinese five-year plan.