Copper supply shortage threatens the global energy transition
by Laura Contemori
According to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released Tuesday, October 20, nine of the 10 metals analyzed are expected to have sufficient production capacity to meet long-term demand. Copper is the exception, with a supply shortfall that could reach 20 million metric tons by 2050, equivalent to 44% of projected global demand.
Closing that gap will require $332 billion in investment to develop new mines. Still, the broader outlook for global supplies of metals essential to the energy transition has improved compared with previous forecasts. In last year’s assessment, BNEF identified three materials at risk of shortages, compared with just copper in its latest projections.
The improved outlook reflects investments in production capacity and technological advances, particularly in battery manufacturing. But the challenge has shifted.
“The question is no longer simply whether the world can produce enough metals overall, but whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed,” said Martin Tengler, head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF.
Copper demand is rising, but mining capacity cannot keep up
BNEF estimates that global copper demand will increase 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million metric tons. Consumption in the electrified transportation sector alone is projected to surge 244% to 11.4 million metric tons, driven primarily by growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the expansion of power grids.
The problem is that supply may not keep pace. BNEF forecasts a copper supply deficit beginning as early as 2028, with the shortfall widening over time.
According to Tengler, developing a new mine takes an average of 17 years, a process that can stretch beyond 20 years in some regions. Even if new mining projects were launched today, a supply deficit would be difficult to avoid.
“The biggest obstacle to closing the copper supply gap is the time it takes to develop a new mine,” Tengler told Rinnovabili.
“The most important changes needed are streamlining regulations and permitting procedures,” he added.
Aluminum is one potential substitute for copper in certain applications, including some electrical equipment and types of wiring.
“In other sectors, technological innovation will be needed to identify alternatives,” Tengler said.
Lithium and graphite demand set to climb sharply
While copper faces mounting supply constraints, other critical materials are also expected to experience substantial demand growth.
BNEF projects that global lithium demand will triple by 2050, rising from 1.6 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026 to 4.8 million metric tons.
Graphite demand is also expected to increase significantly, reaching 6.9 million metric tons, up from 3.3 million metric tons over the same period. In both cases, the expansion of electric vehicles and energy storage systems will be the primary growth drivers.
The outlook is different for nickel and cobalt. The growing adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use either metal in their cathodes, has prompted BloombergNEF to lower its previous demand forecasts for both materials.
China dominates global metals refining capacity
The geographic concentration of metals refining remains a major concern.
According to BNEF, the refining capacity for eight of the 10 materials examined in the report is concentrated in a single country. For seven of those materials, that country is China.
This concentration leaves global supply chains exposed to geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
BNEF also warns that cobalt export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and limits on nickel production in Indonesia could constrain the availability of both metals.
As a result, short-term supply pressures remain possible. Lithium is expected to experience a temporary deficit, which should ease as new production capacity comes online starting in 2027. Meanwhile, the palladium market could remain in deficit through 2034.
Recycling will become increasingly important
Recycling will play a growing role in meeting demand for metals essential to the energy transition.
According to BloombergNEF, by 2050, recycled materials will be needed to help meet demand for eight of the 10 metals covered in the report.
However, the battery recycling industry remains under pressure. Falling lithium, cobalt and nickel prices, combined with excess production capacity, have created difficult market conditions for independent recycling companies in the United States, some of which have filed for bankruptcy.